Latest Gulf Storm Not Out of Ordinary for This Time of Year

Clint ThompsonWeather

By Clint Thompson

The latest tropical system destined for the Gulf of Mexico is a sign that the storm season is not over and not scheduled to be for another month.

Pam Knox

Tropical Depression 18 developed in the Caribbean, will soon strengthen into Hurricane Rafael and is expected to make landfall somewhere along the Gulf.

It’s normal for a hurricane this time of year to develop near the Gulf. Rafael will follow Hurricane Milton, which impacted Florida on Oct. 9, and Helene, which impacted North Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas on Sept. 26-27.

“They’re more likely to come from the Gulf than the traditional ones we usually see on waves coming off of Africa. Usually early in the season and late in the season, more development is centered closer to the  U.S., either in the Gulf of Mexico or sometimes on the east coast. The problem with that is, those storms are just a few days away. You don’t have a lot of time to react where if one is coming off of Africa, you might have a week or more to watch it before you have to worry about it,” Pam Knox, University of Georgia Extension agricultural climatologist.

“It’s the same thing that was true with Michael in 2018. It developed, blew up very quickly over really warm water and came on shore as a (Category) 5 a couple of days after it developed. That was also true of Ian a couple of years ago in 2022.

“There’s less time to react when there’s a Gulf storm.”

The Atlantic hurricane season will end Nov. 30.