By Clint Thompson
Colorado State University’s forecast of 23 named storms and 11 hurricanes for this tropical season are significantly more than the average from the previous 30 years.
Pam Knox, University of Georgia (UGA) Extension agricultural climatologist, noted in her UGA Climate and Agriculture Blog that the average number of storms from 1991-2020 was 14.4 and hurricanes were 7.2. There is also projected to be five major hurricanes compared to the average of 3.2.
“It’s definitely quite a bit above normal. The average number (of named storms), depending on who you look at, is 12 or 14 or so. They’re predicting way above the average number of tropical storms this year, and that’s because we’re going into this La Niña,” Knox said. “When we’re in a La Niña, the Atlantic tropics are more active. That’s because when we have a La Niña, there’s no upper level jetstream that’s blowing the top off of a developing storm, so to speak. It’s more likely you’re going to get more of these storms.”
More Impact for the Southeast
If those numbers aren’t scary enough for specialty crop producers and people living in the Southeast, more of those named storms are expected to impact the region this year.
“Last year we had a lot of storms, but they were mostly over the Atlantic Ocean. We didn’t get a lot in the Gulf or things that came close to the U.S. We did have a couple like Idalia,” Knox said. “This year we’re not going to see that. I think you’re going to see more activity in the Gulf and along the east coast of the United States. That means for the areas that are along those paths, they’re going to see heavy rain, while areas just outside of the path are going to see pretty dry conditions. There’s going to be much more localized rain this fall because of the tropics.”