The long-range weather forecasts call for an extremely active tropical season. Much of that potential for increased activity this summer is due to warmer-than-normal water temperatures, says Pam Knox, University of Georgia (UGA) Extension agricultural climatologist.
“If you look at the longer range (forecast), we do see a pattern shift that is going to allow more likely (storm) development, probably in the Gulf of Mexico. From there, the Gulf is very warm. The waters are really at temperatures closer to what we expect to see in August than what we see in early June,” Knox said. “There’s plenty of energy there for a storm to develop if they get the right seed of a hurricane to come in, tropical wave. Often in June, it won’t be one of these traditional ones that comes off Africa, but it will be something that develops off the tail end of a cold front that comes down across the Gulf or something. There are very warm weathers in the Gulf of Mexico right now.
“If you have the right set of situations there where a storm can start to develop and there’s no wind shear above the surface, then that’s just like lighting a match.”
Colorado State University (CSU) hurricane researchers maintained their April forecast for an extremely active Atlantic hurricane season in 2024. The maintained forecast for the 2024 season, with the average for 1991-2020 in parentheses, is:
- Named storms: 23 (14.4)
- Named storm days: 115 (69.4)
- Hurricanes: 11 (7.2)
- Hurricane days: 45 (27)
- Major hurricanes: 5 (3.2)
- Major hurricane days: 13 (7.4)
“The forecasts are showing much above average for the number of named storms. Some of those could stay out to sea. Last year we had a lot of named storms but almost all of them stayed out to sea,” Knox said. “This year the pattern looks a little different. I think it’s more likely we’re going to see more storms in the Gulf of Mexico this year. Some of those could go west to Texas or up to Louisiana. But we could see some of that moisture here in the Southeast. It’s a good time for people to think about doing inventory and making their plans ahead of time.”
By Clint Thompson