By Peter Chaires
It was my good fortune to recently witness two unique scenarios in the search for HLB-tolerant marketable varieties. These experiences highlighted opportunities before us and clearly identified some challenges in resurrecting, rebuilding or reinventing Florida’s storied citrus industry.
The roadmap forward is yet to be fully defined, and the paths will vary for each fruit type and ultimate utilization. No one knows how this will settle out, but current observations can certainly be illuminating. We must consider what will be needed for a fresh or processed variety to pass muster, the path toward making it viable and the challenges that must be overcome. Following are scenarios for citrus breeding in the fresh and processed segments.
THE FRESH SEGMENT
A potential scenario for what might be considered a mainstream variety includes the following characteristics:
• The variety fits within an existing mainstream category (grapefruit, orange, tangerine/mandarin) and would be accepted by the market as such.
• The tree produces fruit with superior characteristics.
• The tree demonstrates HLB tolerance, and/or is responsive to available therapies or is well suited to citrus under protective screen (CUPS). In other words, there is a reasonable indication of usefulness in the presence of HLB.
Once released, the variety would be an attractive option for nurseries, growers and packers serving the fresh segment. Growers may start conservatively, but nursery increase should commence, and trees would start to go in the ground.
After budwood increase, liner production, budding, grow-out and planting, fruit may go to market in small volumes in the fourth year (best case), with gradual increases in years five and six. An additional year would likely be needed.
The fact that the fruit fits a current retail category makes it easier to ramp-up and build a consumer following. If the fruit exhibits “young tree” characteristics, more time may be needed before entering retail channels of trade. The last thing we want to do is turn off consumers with fruit that is not ready for prime time. Varieties that take longer to produce consistently good quality fruit will be less desirable in current circumstances.
A challenge of this scenario is whether growers would be willing to move forward with a variety with very little production history. Achieving critical mass for larger retailers within a realistic timeframe would be another challenge.
A potential scenario for what might be considered a unique fresh variety or hybrid includes the following characteristics:
• The fruit is markedly different from currently available citrus.
• The fruit has marketable, superior characteristics.
• The fruit does not fit into a commodity category (grapefruit, orange, tangerine/mandarin).
• The tree demonstrates HLB tolerance, and/or is responsive to available therapies and/or is well suited to CUPs.
Interested retailers will need to do consumer testing once there is enough fruit to market in small volumes. Some retailers can do limited testing in a few stores. If successful, more volume will be needed to supply the test stores and expand to additional stores. If testing shows opportunity, and growers are willing to take a risk and plant, these would be the next steps:
• Budwood would need to be increased for one year.
• Liners would need to be produced during the same time that the budwood increase occurs.
• Trees would need to be budded and grown out (10 months to one year if nursery capacity is available).
• Trees would need to be planted and grown for at least two years, but three years is more realistic.
• Small volumes of fruit would hit the market five years after a retailer showed interest.
• Niche market appeal does help in the sense that smaller volumes will be required at the outset.
The above scenario presents some challenges. Retail markets undergo a lot of changes in five years. Will interested retailers wait that long? Will growers roll the dice on something that does not have a known market or demand? Screened nursery space is at a premium. What level of investment will nurseries make for something that looks promising but requires market development?
THE PROCESSED SEGMENT
A potential scenario for the processed segment could include the following:
• Test blocks are established for a variety that looks promising in HLB tolerance and juice characteristics.
• Data are gathered from trials on tree health, production, fruit quality, drop, etc.
• As soon as fruit volume allows, chemical and flavor analysis is completed to determine whether the juice can be processed, blended, stored, etc.
• The most promising candidates are promoted into slightly larger replicated trials.
• Processed utilization would not likely require the consumer market testing and development work required on the fresh side. This would be more internal to the processor. Blending may be very helpful in moving new flavor profiles to market.
• As soon as early results appear to be validated, decision time comes.
Although the industry would prefer more years of testing, time is a luxury we don’t have in the HLB era. If trees are healthy and productive, and fruit can produce high-quality juice, such varieties would likely move into some version of an accelerated program. I have written about these programs previously. Hopefully, there are multiple varieties with a range of maturities.
In the best-case scenario, nurseries gear up, orders are placed, trees are produced, and the industry is off and running.
Challenges to this scenario include:
• If the variety is “orange-like,” it can only be used in limited volumes until the issues surrounding federal standards of identity are resolved.
• Round-orange growers will need a declaration of interest from the processed sector before making investment decisions.
• Rather than critical mass required for a fresh-market variety, the path for a processed variety will require sufficient volumes to maintain processing capacity and existing infrastructure.
EYE-OPENING PROCESS
For those close to the research process, these scenarios are well understood. The above questions and considerations play an important role in breeding decisions. For others, this may be eye opening. These scenarios are for varieties that may emerge from conventional breeding, with no additional regulatory approval needed. These types of varieties may be needed in the near term until other technologies (such as CRISPR) can be fully utilized.
Peter Chaires is executive director of the New Varieties Development and Management Corp.