Net farm income is expected to decrease by $39.8 billion in 2024, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service (ERS) report titled: Farm Sector Income & Finances: Highlights from the Farm Income Forecast.
Net farm income is projected to be $116.1 billion in calendar year 2024, a 25.5% drop compared to 2023 in nominal (not adjusted for inflation) dollars. This comes on the heels of a previous decrease of $29.7 billion (16%) from 2022 to $155.9 billion in 2023. An expected decline would mean the net farm income in 2024 would be 1.7% below its 20-year average (2003–22) of $118.2 billion.
Net Cash Farm Incomes
Net cash farm income is forecast at $121.7 billion in 2024. That would mark a decrease of $38.7 billion or 24.1% relative to 2023. This follows a forecast decrease of $41.8 billion or 20.7% from 2022 to 2023. In 2024, net cash farm income is forecast to be 13.7% below its 2003–22 average of $141.0 billion. Net cash farm income encompasses cash receipts from farming as well as cash farm-related income (including Federal Government payments) minus cash expenses. It does not include noncash items (including changes in inventories, economic depreciation, and gross imputed rental income of operator dwellings) reflected in the net farm income measure.
Cash receipts from the sale of agricultural commodities are forecast to decrease by $21.2 billion from 2023 to $485.5 billion in 2024. Total crop receipts are expected to decrease by $16.7 billion or 6.3% from 2023.
Also contributing to lower forecast net income in 2024 are lower direct government payments and higher production expenses. Direct government payments are forecast to fall by $1.9 billion from 2023 to $10.2 billion in 2024. This decrease is expected largely because of lower supplemental and ad hoc disaster assistance in 2024 relative to 2023. Meanwhile, total production expenses, including operator dwelling expenses, are forecast to increase by $16.7 billion to $455.1 billion in 2024. Livestock/poultry purchases and labor expenses are expected to see the largest increases in 2024 relative to 2023.
Average net cash farm income for farm businesses is forecast to decrease 27.2% from 2023 to $72,000 per farm in 2024 (in nominal terms). All nine USDA, Economic Research Service (ERS) Farm Resource Regions are expected to see average net cash farm income fall in 2024 relative to 2023.