According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service Situation and Outlook Report, U.S. agricultural exports in fiscal year (FY) 2025 are forecast at $169.5 billion, a decrease of $4 billion from the revised forecast for FY 2024.
The decline is mostly attributed to lower unit values of soybeans, corn, cotton and beef.
Ag Exports to Mexico are forecast at $29.2 billion, down $100 million from FY 2024. The export forecast to Canada is unchanged at $28.9 billion. Mexico and Canada are projected to remain the top two largest U.S. agricultural markets, respectively. Ag exports to China are forecast at $24 billion, $3 billion lower than the revised FY 2024 estimate. It is driven by reduced import demand, strong competition and lower unit values of key U.S. exports.
The FY 2025 forecast for horticultural products is at a record $41.5 billion, up $1.2 billion from 2024. Fresh fruits and vegetables are forecast $100 million higher to $7.6 billion. This is due in part to increased apple shipments to India following the lifting of retaliatory tariffs that had been since 2019. Whole and processed tree nuts are forecast $400 million higher to $9.9 billion on steady unit values and increased demand from Europe and Asia.
The FY 2024 estimate for horticultural products is raised $1.3 billion to $40.3 billion. Fresh fruits and vegetables are revised $400 million higher to $7.5 billion.
Source: USDA Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service Situation and Outlook Report