Mexican agricultural imports for fiscal year (FY) 2025 is projected up 4% over FY 2024 at $49.9 billion, according to USDA Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service Situation and Outlook Report. Strong domestic demand for fresh fruits and vegetables continue to drive the potential increase.
Exchange rates, drought in Mexico’s key producing regions and supply chain logistic challenges may continue to factor in agricultural imports for FY 2025.
Tropical storms Alberto and Beryl provided rainfall to many areas suffering from drought, replenishing reservoirs that are instrumental to irrigation.
This will play an important role in Mexico’s agricultural production through FY 2024 and into FY 2025. Drought conditions persist in some growing areas in Mexico, taking a negative toll on import volumes. Imports values, though, are projected higher on strong unit values and more favorable exchange rates.
FY 2024 imports from Mexico are increased by $100 million from the May Outlook to $47.9 billion; almost a 7% increase over FY 2023. A significant share of that growth comes from horticultural products—especially processed food and beverages and fresh produce including, avocados, citrus and tomatoes. Higher unit values of fruits have driven increases in import value, which can be partially explained by supply constraints associated with drought in some parts in Mexico.
The Mexican peso has been strong against the U.S. dollar for most of FY 2024, making imports more expensive for the United States and potentially reducing Mexico’s competitiveness to competitors such as Peru and Colombia.
Source: USDA Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service Situation and Outlook Report