By Clint Thompson
The impact of the termination of the Tomato Suspension Agreement will not be fully realized for another couple of months, according to one industry leader.
Robert Guenther, executive vice president of the Florida Tomato Exchange, said that when the calendar turns to 2026 is when the tomato industry should see the full effect of the agreement’s termination and its impact on market prices.
“Our season just started two weeks ago, so we’re just getting going. Prices right now seem to be holding pretty steady,” Guenther said. “I think starting in late December, early January, that’s when the market will increase significantly in terms of product into the U.S. We’ll see what happens. We’re watching it every day. We’re talking to the industry every week just to see how things are going.
“I think if we continue to see what we’re seeing right now in terms of weather, in terms of stability, I think that’s when we’ll start to see more and more of the how the suspension agreement is truly going to be impacting the market here and for growers across the country.”
Background
It was announced on April 14 that the U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC) terminated the 2019 United States-Mexico Tomato Suspension Agreement, which became effective on July 14.
The controversial agreement failed to stop Mexican tomato companies from dumping their product into the U.S. market. Mexican tomato companies have consistently dumped their product into the U.S. market, despite five suspension agreements since 1996. Imports surged nearly 400%, capturing more than 70% of the U.S. market. The domestic market share dropped from 80% to 30%.
The Commerce Department’s decision to terminate the agreement came in response to a 2023 petition from the tomato industry, which was supported by more than 60 bipartisan members of Congress from 11 states, the American Farm Bureau Federation, state farm bureaus from all nine major tomato-producing states and 15 fruit and vegetable trade associations across the country.
Guenther believes this is just the beginning, and that more commodity-based organizations will seek help with rising imports.
“This isn’t stopping. There’s going to be more and more of this, I believe, in different commodities. They’re going to continue to push because of what they see as an uncompetitive advantage that the imports have across a lot of different commodities,” Guenther said.