By Clint Thompson
The looming El Niño weather pattern means a decreased chance for tropical systems to develop during the summer and fall. But all it takes is one to have an impact, explains James Spann, chief meteorologist at the Alabama Weather Network.
“The consensus is very high that we are going into an El Niño phase. Traditionally, in an El Niño phase, the hurricane season is muted. Hurricane formation tends to be mitigated by stronger winds aloft over the Atlantic basin,” Spann said. “In the summer, our main source of organized rain is through tropical storms, hurricanes. If indeed the hurricane season is muted, of course the best-case scenario is a disorganized tropical depression that comes up and brings you five to 10 inches of rain which could happen easily. The worst case is, you don’t want to make a hurricane, of course. Traditionally, with a good strong El Niño, it’s muted so that gives us a much lower risk of getting some tropical rain this summer.
“Having said that, all it takes is one. Remember 1992, we had a strong El Niño and it was one of the quietest seasons ever except for one which was the first one and that was Andrew. Even in an El Niño summer, you can have something like that.”
Hurricane Andrew impacted South Florida as a Category 5 storm.
The Southeast region dodged a hurricane last year. A second straight summer without a tropical system impacting the Southeast would be astounding considering the active season in 2024 when Helene impacted North Florida and much of Georgia in late September, while Milton moved across central Florida a few weeks later in October.