By Clint Thompson
Georgia’s pecan yields for this season are almost impossible to predict. Between increased plantings over the past decade and hurricane damage sustained from Helene this year, there is no good way to estimate this year’s crop, says Lenny Wells, University of Georgia (UGA) Extension pecan specialist.
“We know what the acreage is, but it’s hard to predict from that what the yield is going to be. You’ve got so many staggered ages of young trees coming into production, and each of them is going to contribute a different amount, on top of what we already had plus what we’ve lost to storms,” Wells said. “There’s just no good way to estimate the crop at the moment, I don’t feel like.”
Helene Damage Analysis
Wells noted in the UGA Extension Pecan Blog that the American Pecan Council contracted with Land IQ to analyze pecan losses due to Helene. It estimated that between 41,509 and 62,115 acres were impacted, and between 17,874 and 26,750 acres lost at least 20% of their trees. That equates to an estimated 23 million to 39 million pounds lost, leaving between 77 million and 103 million pounds of harvestable crop that remained.
“Some of that uncertainty about the exact size of the crop is where the ranges come from when they’re talking about the potential crop estimate for Georgia,” Wells said.
This year’s potential yields were also impacted by green pecans not maturing and staying in the trees.
“I’m fearful that a lot of those that are still green and not opening are either not going to open because they’re probably going to sprout or may have some embryo rot. After kernel filling is complete, we go through a hot, dry extended period (like this year), that’s how problems arise, especially if you haven’t been irrigating,” Wells said.