U.S. agricultural exports in fiscal year (FY) 2023 are forecast at $181.0 billion, down $3.5 billion from the February forecast, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service Situation and Outlook Report.
Horticultural exports are unchanged at $39.0 billion, though the forecast for sugar and tropical product exports is revised up $400 million to $6.4 billion on higher unit values for sugar and cocoa products. Whole and processed tree nuts are unchanged at $9.0 billion, with most shipments bound for the European Union and Asia. Processed fruits and vegetables are unchanged at $7.3 billion on steady shipments to Canada.
Fresh fruit and vegetables are unchanged at $7.1 billion on stable shipments to top markets Canada and Mexico.
Ag imports forecast for FY 2023 decreased to $198.0 billion. This is a $1.0 billion decrease from the previous forecast, though it would be a $4.0 billion increase above FY 2022 imports of $194 billion.
Horticultural products are the largest import commodity group. They are revised down by $800 million to $99.1 billion. This is a change of less than 1% from previous estimates and reflects lower forecast demand for high-value consumer products. Despite the downward revision from the forecast, horticultural product imports are forecast to increase 2% over FY 2022.
Forecasts for fresh vegetables and processed fruits were adjusted upwards. Fresh vegetables were revised up $400 million to $12.2 billion due to imports from Mexico, though fresh vegetable and potato import values from Canada also increased in the first half of the fiscal year.
The group of fresh fruits, nuts, wine, beer and distilled spirits are reduced from the previous forecast. The $200 million or 1% decrease in expected fresh fruit import value is due to lower unit values as well as slowing expected import volumes from select countries like Chile and Mexico in the case of avocados.
Imports of sugar and tropical products are adjusted down $300 million or 1% to $29.9 billion in FY 2023. It would be $800 million above FY 2022.