By Clint Thompson
A La Nina weather pattern looms on the horizon. Just how quickly the pattern transitions from the current El Niño remains a question mark, according to Pam Knox, University of Georgia (UGA) Extension agricultural climatologist.
“The models do not all agree on how fast it’s going to change from an El Niño, go through neutral (conditions) to La Nina. Some models have it happening faster than others,” Knox said. “Spring is always a hard time of year to predict. There is just so much going on in the atmosphere with the Arctic being cold and moving towards the summer season, so it’s losing snow cover and things like that. When you’re in spring, it’s really hard to say what’s going to happen by fall. Almost of all the models agree that we’re going to go into a La Nina. They just don’t agree on how fast it’s going to happen.
“We’re likely to see El Niño effects at least for the next couple of months, because there’s always a little bit of a lag in impacts. But by summer we’re going to at least be in neutral conditions and then probably by late summer we will switch into La Nina.”
Active Tropical Season
A La Nina means there is more likely to be an active season in the Atlantic Ocean for hurricanes and tropical storms. But Knox emphasizes it is still too early to know if those storms will go over land or over the ocean.
“We already had an active season last year even though we were in an El Niño. This year could be even more active than last year. The ocean temperatures are amazingly warm. I think in the Atlantic Ocean right now, the average temperature for a lot of the Atlantic Ocean is near June or July temperatures,” Knox said. “It’s much warmer than you’d expect to see this time of year. All of that warmth is the fuel that helps hurricanes develop. I think it could be another very active year.”