By Clint Thompson
Lenny Wells, University of Georgia Extension pecan specialist, believes a recent 85 million-pound estimate of Georgia’s pecan crop this year is not far off, though various factors can still cause that number to decrease or increase by the time harvest season rolls around.
The yield estimate of Georgia’s crop was made at the recent Tri-State pecan meeting in Mississippi. But the unknown can still sway yields one way or the other.
“Based upon what we look like compared to last year, I’m not going to say that number is off by a lot, but it’s so hard to say,” Wells said. “We lost some acreage to the storm, and we’ve got younger trees putting on more production every year. It’s hard to get an idea of exactly where we are. I don’t think that number is terribly far off.”
A significant factor is the impact from Hurricane Helene last September. Estimates released by the University of Georgia (UGA) College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences (CAES) following the storm last fall indicated a $62 million impact to crop loss this year and $76 million in replanting costs. It was estimated that 400,000 trees were lost to the storm.
UGA Extension Pecan Blog
Wells also noted in his UGA Extension Pecan Blog that, “no one can say with any accuracy exactly how many acres of bearing trees we currently have in Georgia.” Georgia had more than 200,000 acres prior to Helene, and acreage is projected to now be between 150,000 and 170,000, though not all of it are bearing.
“Nor can anyone say how many new acres of pecans will come into bearing this year or how many pounds the young acreage planted over the last 10 to 15 years will contribute,” Wells wrote. “All of this makes predicting an accurate number for Georgia at least, almost impossible.”
There has also been increased scab disease pressure this year which could impact pecan quality and quantity.