By Clint Thompson
Predicting the pecan market is not an exact science. In fact, it can be as unpredictable as the weather. No one really knows what the market will be like when pecans are harvested in the fall.
“I keep hearing, spurts here and there from a couple of people, that demand is there and all of that, but then the next thing I hear from somebody else saying it’s not. I don’t really know,” says Lenny Wells, University of Georgia Cooperative Extension pecan specialist. “The pecan market has gotten to be just about totally unpredictable.”
All growers have to do is look back at last year’s market that greeted growers.
“Last year we were told all summer long that demand was strong, and prices were going to be good. Even with all of the issues going on that we would see good prices,” Wells said. “Turned out to be some of the worst prices we’ve seen in a long time. There’s really no way to predict what’s going to happen with pecan prices at this point. That makes it very difficult because you know growers are trying to grow this crop. Most of them are going to do what needs to be done and grow the best crop they can, but it sure sticks in the back of your mind, ‘Am I going to be able to make any money at this?’”
Producers also have to be mindful of the crop other countries have produced. That has just as big of an impact on market prices as the crop domestic growers are producing.
“Even if the demand is there right now, say in the summer, the South African crop is being harvested now. I haven’t heard really what kind of crop they have. But you know if there’s a big South African crop and a big Mexican crop and I don’t know what the Mexican crop is doing this year, that usually doesn’t bode well. It’s not really even about anymore what it looks like on our crop here at the time; 20 years ago, they made a big difference, you could gauge what the prices would be based on what the crop in Georgia looked like … now, you’ve got Mexico, South Africa involved in it, too,” Wells said. “Even if we have a light crop here that doesn’t always mean we’re going to have good prices, and even if we have a heavy crop here, it doesn’t always mean we’re going to have bad prices. It’s hard to gauge just looking at things here in Georgia.”