By Clint Thompson
Two major hurricane forecast organizations are predicting a below-normal hurricane season for the Atlantic basin this year. But Southeast farmers should not let their guard down, says James Spann, chief meteorologist at the Alabama Weather Network.
“My question is what does the guy in New Orleans do with that (information) or Mobile or Houston or Galveston or Tampa Bay? If they see what’s below average, I’m not going to get ready for it,” Spann said. “I don’t like the messaging that comes with those things.
“I just don’t want people to let their guard down.”
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is forecasting a total of 8 to 14 named storms, of which 3 to 6 are predicted to become hurricanes, with 1 to 3 being major hurricanes. An average season has 14 named storms with seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
Colorado State University reduced its hurricane season forecast on June 10 and projected 11 named storms (average of 14.4 from 1991 to 2020); five hurricanes (average of 7.2); and two major hurricanes (average of 3.2).
If the Southeast dodges a hurricane, it would mark the second straight year that it’s occurred. Considering how rare that would be, it’s even more reason for producers to not let their guards down. As Spann states, all it takes is one to have an impact.
“Again, last year, not one single landfalling hurricane on the United States coast, which is incredible. If you go back and look at the statistics, I don’t know when the last time we had two consecutive years without a landfalling hurricane on the U.S. coast. It’s been a while. I don’t even know if that’s happened in my lifetime,” Spann said.
“I will say, our folks are a little nervous on the Gulf Coast here. We had Hurricane Sally in 2020. That was six years ago. And it’s been pretty quiet since then. We’re kind of overdue for a little bit of tropical trouble. Sally was a strong Category 2. They’ve not had a Category 4 on the Central Gulf Coast since Ivan, way back in ’04. So, they’re kind of statistically overdue.”