By Clint Thompson
What was already projected to be a quiet tropical season may be a little quieter based on the latest projections from Colorado State University.
CSU is predicting nine named storms, four hurricanes and one major hurricane with winds topping 111 miles per hour. The 1991-2020 average is 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. CSU’s prediction in April was 13 named storms and six hurricanes, and in June, the forecast dropped to 11 named storms and five hurricanes.
The rapid development of El Niño has impacted how the forecast projections have decreased, according to Pam Knox, University of Georgia (UGA) Extension agricultural climatologist
“Well, you know, the forecasts for El Niño this year have been pretty strong, and it’s getting strong faster than they even thought,” Knox said. “And so we know that El Niño has a big effect on the number of tropical storms that hit the southeast, mostly because it controls how well the tropical waves develop. When we have an El Niño, we usually have a really strong jet stream aloft, and that keeps the vertical structure of hurricanes from forming. So even if we have the waves coming off of Africa, we don’t have the possibility of them strengthening quite as much.
“I think based on the fact that it’s just El Niño has gotten strong very quickly, that they think the number of storms we’re likely to see this year is lower and lower than it was previously. Before they had the forecast, they didn’t really know how fast it was going to develop. This is just in response to what we’re actually seeing.”