By Clint Thompson
Drought conditions continue to persist across areas of the Southeast. They’re likely to continue in the near term, according to Pam Knox, University of Georgia Extension agricultural climatologist. But that won’t always be the case amid a strong El Niño.
“The signal for El Niño this winter is very strong, which means that sooner or later we’re going to switch into that winter El Niño pattern in parts of the southeast, most likely southern parts of Georgia and then Alabama and northern Florida, are going to get a lot of rain this winter,” Knox said. “It’s not necessarily going to all come at once. It’s just going to be lots of rainy days. At some point we’re going to go into that fall weather pattern. It could happen October or it could happen in November. I mean, we don’t know.
“It doesn’t look like it’s going to happen anytime soon, but once it really kicks in, we could see pretty wet conditions. I think at that point the drought will go away over the winter and by next spring we could be in the opposite condition of being too wet to get into the fields. But we have a long ways to go before we get there.”
Current Drought Conditions
According to the Sept. 3 release of the U.S. Drought Monitor, drought conditions are worse in South Alabama, South Georgia and North Florida. Moderate drought is seen in Southwest Alabama, Southeast Georgia and Northeast Florida. August was a hit-or-miss month for rainfall, leading to increased drought across the region.
“We had rain at the beginning of the month. We had quite a bit and then nothing for weeks after that,” Knox said. “At least we’re getting this pop-up stuff, and I noticed it looks like the Southwest. There’s a big mass of rain that’s going to come in and drop some rain down there, but still a lot of the state is just, it’s very hit or miss. If you’re one of the misses, then that’s real trouble. I think the drought is likely to get worse in the short term.”