By Clint Thompson
The decreased chance for a hurricane this year does not mean one won’t happen. In fact, there is an increased chance for a pop-up storm to occur in this scenario, according to Pam Knox, University of Georgia (UGA) Extension agricultural climatologist.
“What some of the consequences that they’re starting to talk a little bit now are with the strong jet stream aloft, it means that whatever storms develop are more likely to develop a little bit closer to the west and closer to land. That means they probably won’t be as strong, but they will probably spin up pretty quickly,” Knox said.
“I think the chances are that if we see more storms this year, they’re likely to be developing closer to land and they’re probably going to be shorter term and maybe not as strong. But you know, it doesn’t matter if you’re getting a whole bunch of rain, it still can cause a lot of impacts.”
Tropical Storm Alberto
South Georgia farmers can look back to the 1990s to see how torrential rains from a mid-summer tropical storm can have a devastating impact.
“Right now, we’re at the anniversary of Tropical Storm Alberto, which hit the Flint River Valley in 1994. That was a fairly weak tropical storm, but it dropped over 20 inches in Americus (Georgia) in one day. Impacts vary,” Knox said. “Some impacts are more wind-oriented. Some are more rain-oriented, and they have different effects. Obviously, it depends on what kind of crops you’re growing and what stage they’re in. I think a big storm that has really strong winds is a little bit less likely, but they can still spin up pretty quickly.”
Southeast also only have to look back eight years to remember how Hurricane Michael formed in the Gulf and quickly became one of the strongest and impactful storms to impact the Southeast. It is a reminder to growers to always be on their guards.
“Michael only developed from a tropical storm into a category five storm in a really short time period,” Knox said. “We won’t have as much warning time as we would for these storms that come off of Africa and travel all the way across the Atlantic Ocean.”