By Clint Thompson
It is too early to forecast what Georgia’s pecan crop will yield for the upcoming season.
Lenny Wells, University of Georgia Extension pecan specialist, believes the estimated pounds for this harvest season could fall between 2021’s crop (88.6 million pounds) and 2022’s crop (125.5 million pounds). But it is still an estimation at this point.
“We’re so far away and we’ve got so many challenges facing us with the scab pressure that’s out there, it’s still a long way to go and a lot could happen. I think it’s risky to put any kind of number on it at this point. I’d say we’ve got the potential for somewhere in between those two years,” Wells said.
The wide margin of yields the past two seasons reflects the unpredictable nature of pecans’ alternate bearing tendency. That does not even account for various weather-related issues that can also impact production.
“In any year you’re going to have challenges that face the crop. It may come in the form of heavy scab pressure like we’re seeing so far this year,” Wells said. “Even say you have a year where there’s a real heavy crop on the trees and everything looks great all the way until you get to August and September, if it turns off really bone dry in August and September, that’s a really big issue for the crop and will cut the size of the crop down, too.
“A lot of weather events can really affect the crop. Anything can happen at this point.”
The crop is currently in a rapid nut sizing stage where it is most susceptible to scab injury. The nuts are growing so fast that if a grower sprays today, there will be tissue on the nut 3 to 5 days from now that wasn’t there when they sprayed.
“It’s going to be exposed to scab. If it’s raining every day like we’ve had the last couple of weeks that’s a disaster for pecan scab,” Wells said.
Click here for updates on Georgia’s pecan production.